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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd